TD-SCDMA faces uphill battle outside China
A report by ABI Research says that although TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) faces an uphill battle outside of mainland China, inside the country it will likely be the dominant 3G technology thanks to “heavyweight” support by the government.
The current 3G delay inside China, says the report titled “3G and Beyond in China and Hong Kong,” is largely due to regulatory complications rather than technical issues. Although “China’s TD-SCDMA ecosystem is ready,” according to ABI, 3G licenses were not issued by the end of 2007. ABI predicts that the first TD-SCDMA license will be issued by the end of the first quarter of 2008, and the remaining 3G licenses issued six to nine months after that.
TD-SCDMA may have trouble catching on outside China, especially in Hong Kong, which has a very strong market infrastructure — 56 lines per 100 people, according to Hong Kong’s OFTA (Office of the Telecommunications Authority). However, with industry players in China and internationally already displaying multimode handsets, and an upgraded, HSDPA-enhanced network infrastructure already in place in 10 of China’s major cities, the lag may not be significant.
The recent 850 MHz spectrum auction for CDMA2000 services, which will ensure continuity of roaming services for visitors to China using CDMA handsets, suggests that the mainland’s influence on Hong Kong’s telecommunications industry is becoming more significant.
The results will be more clear, according to ABI, once the Chinese government has finalized its 3G outcome.